Bitcoin Price Faces Potential 60% Decline As Expert Warns Of ‘Major Bull Trap’
Despite Bitcoin briefly rebounding above the key $90,000 level, which has historically acted as a support floor for the cryptocurrency, signs are mounting that a deeper correction could be on the horizon.
Is the Bitcoin rally sustainable?
Market analyst Rekt Fencer shared concerns on X (formerly Twitter), warning that Bitcoin may be forming what he calls a “massive bull trap.” This concept refers to a false bullish signal where price pushes above a resistance level—here, $90,000—only to reverse and fall, trapping late buyers who purchased near the peak and facing sharp losses.
Fencer highlighted a pattern reminiscent of early 2022, when Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-week moving average (MA)—now around $102,300—before plunging roughly 60%, sliding below $20,000 by June of that year.
He cautioned that the recent rebound from the drop to $84,000 should not be read as a guarantee of near-term strength, especially since the price is currently trading below the 50-week MA. If history repeats, Bitcoin could see another steep drop, potentially around $36,200, which many would deem the bear market’s low point. Yet some analysts remain optimistic.
Bottom or not?
Market researcher Miles Deutscher expressed strong confidence, estimating a 91.5% probability that Bitcoin has already hit its bottom, based on his read of key developments.
Deutscher notes that recent weeks have been dominated by negative headlines—rising concerns about Tether (USDT) and China’s crypto actions—which, in his view, often coincide with local price bottoms.
He also points to a shift in market flows from bearish to bullish. Trading activity has shown renewed buying momentum, with large holders, or “OG whales,” halting their selling. This shift is reflected in order books and could signal a stabilization in sentiment.
Additionally, liquidity conditions appear to be tightening. The potential appointment of a dovish Federal Reserve chair and the official end of quantitative tightening (QT) could support buyers and alter market dynamics in a favorable direction.
Deutscher concludes that, considering the extreme fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) currently weighing on the market, along with improving trading flows, the odds favor the view that Bitcoin may have already reached its bottom.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
