Yemen's civil war takes a dramatic turn as the country's south erupts in tension. A brief closure of Yemen's airspace on Monday signals a significant development in the complex conflict, which has already endured for over a decade. The incident was triggered by the takeover of an oil-rich region by a separatist group, the Southern Transitional Council (STC), backed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
This takeover in the Hadhramaut province reveals a fracture within the anti-Houthi forces. Since 2014, Yemen has been embroiled in a civil war, primarily between the Iranian-aligned Houthi rebels and the internationally recognized government, supported by a Saudi-led coalition. The STC, while also opposing the Houthis, has a different agenda: they aspire to establish an independent state in southern Yemen.
The situation escalated when the Saudi-led coalition denied permission for flights to and from Aden, the seat of the internationally recognized government. This move was interpreted as a warning to the separatists, who had recently seized control of areas in the oil-rich Hadhramaut province, bordering Saudi Arabia. And here's where it gets controversial: this escalation could potentially lead to Yemen's division into two states, undoing over three decades of unification.
Saudi Arabia, however, denied closing Yemen's airspace. The coalition has controlled the country's airspace since its intervention in 2015. The temporary closure left hundreds of passengers stranded, according to an anonymous government official. An AP journalist witnessed the resumption of flight operations at the airport.
The STC, an alliance of UAE-backed armed groups, has been expanding its control. They recently captured Seiyun in Hadhramaut, including vital oil fields and energy installations, after brief clashes with the Yemeni military and allied tribes. The group's forces have been deployed across strategic areas, including major cities and military bases, and they have raised the flag of South Yemen over government buildings in the south.
But the story doesn't end there. The separatists have strong support in southern Yemen and have long advocated for the country's division into two states, as it was from 1967 to 1990. Demonstrations in Aden and Hadhramaut celebrated the STC's advances, with supporters calling for an independent southern state. The STC forces also seized the presidential palace in Aden, forcing presidential guards to leave.
The STC justifies its actions as necessary to restore regional stability and combat various militant groups, including the Houthis, al-Qaida, and the Islamic State. They claim that the Hadhramaut Valley has become a hub for smuggling operations and extremist activities. However, this interpretation is not universally accepted.
Rashad al-Alimi, chairman of the ruling Presidential Council, has called for the Emirati-backed forces to withdraw from the recently seized areas. He emphasized the need to maintain the state's legal status and public interest, rejecting any unilateral actions that could create a parallel reality.
Analysts suggest that the STC's actions represent a major shift with regional implications. Ahmed Nagi, a Yemen expert, believes the UAE is the main beneficiary, expanding its influence in Yemen. This development alters the power dynamics, raising questions about Saudi Arabia's response, given the direct impact on its national security.
The UAE-backed forces now dominate Yemen's southern half, including critical coastal areas and strategic islands. This situation has created tension within the Saudi-led coalition, as the UAE's support for the separatists challenges the coalition's unity. The UAE maintains that its position aligns with Saudi Arabia and supports international efforts for a political solution in Yemen.
Yemen's war, which began in 2014 with the Houthi takeover of Sanaa and much of the north, continues to evolve with these new developments. The country's future remains uncertain as various factions vie for control and influence.
